Possibility of worst El Nino since 1877 super weather event

A weather expert has claimed a weather system gathering in the Pacific could become the most challenging climate event humans have faced for centuries.

The potentially historic weather system is rapidly strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, prompting one meteorologist to warn of a “Super El Nino*.”

US meteorologist Ryan Maue said the coming El Nino could be the strongest since an 1877 El Nino led to heatwaves, drought and pestilence*, reducing an astonishing four per cent of the Earth’s population at the time.

“This ‘Super El Nino’ will be perhaps the strongest in 500 to 1000 years, and could legitimately be the most extreme global weather or climate event experienced by humanity since the invention of the printing press.” he wrote.

Official agencies haven’t confirmed such extreme claims, however their latest numbers have suggested a growing El Nino.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said El Nino was firmly established and continued to strengthen. The relative Niño3.4 index — a key measure of temperatures across the central tropical Pacific — reached 1.94 C above average in the week ending July 26, after jumping about half a degree in just a fortnight.

The El Nino threshold is 0.8C.

The majority of international models now indicate the event could peak at levels among or above the highest recorded since 1950, with further strengthening expected through spring and into summer.

America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has placed the probability of a “very strong” El Nino at 81 per cent between October and December, with a 97 per cent chance the system will continue into early 2027.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) expects temperature anomalies* to exceed 2.9 C in some key Pacific monitoring regions and has warned the developing event will arrive alongside exceptionally warm oceans and a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole*.

That combination could amplify drought, flooding and wildfire risks across several continents.

But despite warnings of a strong El Nino, the likelihood of extreme weather events impacting the world’s population as it did during the El Nino of 1877 remains extremely low.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 1877?
The El Nino of 1877-78 formed during one of the most catastrophic climate episodes in recorded history.

Peer-reviewed research published in the Journal of Climate found that simultaneous droughts across Asia, Africa and Brazil caused widespread crop failures and helped trigger a global famine that killed more than 50 million people.

Monsoonal Asia endured its most intense drought in at least 800 years. But it would be misleading to blame the entire disaster on El Nino alone.

Researchers found the crisis was driven by an extraordinary combination of ocean conditions. A record-breaking El Nino, an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole and unusually warm waters in the North Atlantic, all collided to become a perfect storm.

Colonial policy*, poverty, food distribution* and the vulnerability of populations, combined with food shortages from failed rains, together led to mass famines and death.

The estimate that roughly four per cent of humanity died during the broader crisis is plausible given the world’s much smaller population at the time.

Nowadays, advanced technologies and a globalised distribution* of food crops make the possibility of mass famine across developed countries very slim.

And while less developed nations that rely on local production alone could be severely impacted by extreme weather events, international aid agencies, such as UNICEF, play a major role in distributing food to places affected by famine and other disasters.

PACIFIC TEMPERATURES RISING FAST
While talk of another El Nino has been underway the past couple of months, the unusually wet start to Australia’s winter caused some confusion.

But El Nino is defined by conditions in the tropical Pacific, not by whether it happens to rain in Sydney or Melbourne during a particular week.

The WMO expects below-normal rainfall across southern and eastern Australia between August and October, while the Bureau said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may also form.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could reinforce El Nino’s drying influence over large parts of the country. It has reached the technical threshold once, but must remain there before an event is declared.

Historically, nine of eastern Australia’s 10 driest winter-to-spring periods have occurred during El Nino years.

Rainfall across the Murray-Darling Basin has averaged 28 per cent below normal during El Nino events since 1900, while hotter days and lower rainfall can increase fire danger across southeastern Australia.

But even then, nothing is strictly guaranteed.

The exceptionally strong 1997-98 El Nino produced relatively limited rainfall impacts across much of Australia, while the weaker 2002-03 event happened alongside widespread drought.

A 2024 study published in Nature found evidence supporting predictions that the conditions capable of producing extreme El Nino events could become more frequent as greenhouse warming alters Pacific Ocean dynamics.

That finding does not prove the current event will become the strongest in centuries, but it does mean a powerful natural warming cycle is developing on top of a climate system already producing what the study describes as, “record ocean temperatures, longer heatwaves and increasingly severe ecological* stress”.

POLL

GLOSSARY

• El Nino: El Nino is a weather pattern that brings hotter temperatures and less rainfall than usual. It is caused by warmer surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean leading to a change in atmospheric wind movements. Warmer ocean temperatures lead to more rainfall over that part of the ocean and less rain over northern Australia
• pestilence: severe and widespread outbreaks of fatal or highly contagious disease
• anomalies: differences from what is considered normal or typical
• positive Indian Ocean Dipole: a positive IOD happens because of a change in ocean surface temperatures. It has to do with the difference in temperature between two poles: a western pole in the western Indian Ocean and an eastern pole in the eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD causes less rainfall over the Top End of Australia and southern Australia, leading to drier conditions
• colonial policy: the policies of ruling empires, such as Great Britain and France, who actively took over other lands and enforced their countries’s rule of law. There were instances of colonial policy that favoured the ruling country over the ruled territory during periods of famine, such as in India between 1876 and 1878 when free market grain exports to England continued despite millions of Indians starving
• food distribution: food distribution in 1877 was starting to be less localised thanks to the Industrial revolution, however, the development of rail transport saw grain delivered to places in England where those who could afford to pay more would buy it, meaning poorer people in regional areas missed out completely. Colonial policy also meant that grain was sent from India to England without regard for India’s starving population. In non-industrialised parts of the world, weather events wiped out crops in areas reliant on local production, meaning millions of people had very little to eat
• globalised distribution: when food and other commodities are shipped or transported around the world and don’t depend on a local area or one country’s production
• ecological: relating to the environment and the relationship between all living things as well as the weather

EXTRA READING
Skiers bemoan worst snow season
Eerie New York snowscape stuns
Australia to sweat through El Nino

QUICK QUIZ
1. What happened in 1877?
2. What factors led to that event wiping out four per cent of the world’s population?
3. Why is it unlikely that a similar El Nino in the current age would cause the same death rate?
4. What sort of weather conditions does an El Nino typically bring in Australia?
5. In what way is global warming interacting with El Nino weather patterns?

LISTEN TO THIS STORY

CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES
1. Managing your reaction
Some of the information in this news story may make you feel worried or concerned. When reading about important or challenging topics, it is helpful to think carefully about all the information before forming an opinion. Looking for both the concerns and the reassuring facts can help you respond in a balanced way.

Practice this skill by:

• Drawing a two-column table with the headings: Information that worries me and Information that reassures me.
• Finding and copying quotes or key pieces of information from the article that belong under each heading.
• Writing a short paragraph explaining your overall thoughts and feelings about the issue. Use evidence from the article to explain whether you think people should be worried, reassured, or a little of both, and why.

Time: allow 30 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: English

2. Extension
Create a Weather and Climate Visual Dictionary with illustrations to explain some of the vocabulary used in this news article.

Time: allow 10 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: English

VCOP ACTIVITY
Wow word recycle
There are plenty of wow words (ambitious pieces of vocabulary) being used in the article. Some are in the glossary, but there might be extra ones from the article that you think are exceptional as well.

Identify all the words in the article that you think are not common words, and particularly good choices for the writer to have chosen.

Select three words you have highlighted to recycle into your own sentences.

If any of the words you identified are not in the glossary, write up your own glossary for them.

Extension
Find a bland sentence from the article to up-level. Can you add more detail and description? Can you replace any base words with more specific synonyms?

Down-level for a younger audience. Find a sentence in the article that is high level. Now rewrite it for a younger audience so they can understand the words without using the glossary.