Space agencies confident as asteroid risk carefully monitored

NASA has its sights firmly set on an asteroid that could be headed in the direction of Earth.

International space agencies have been working together to track the asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, which has a small 1.5 per cent probability* of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA.

To keep things in perspective, that means a far greater 98.5 per cent probability the asteroid won’t hit Earth in 2032.

Even better, much of the research undertaken by the space agencies has included ways to destroy the asteroid if necessary, reported the New York Post.

“No one is panicking, but it’s definitely what we’re talking about in the hallways of NASA,” an unnamed project manager at Kennedy Space Center told the NY Post.

“We know we have enough time to act, but now’s the time to start planning,” he said.

While NASA initially estimated the probability of impact to be 3.1 per cent, the space agency later downgraded* its expectations to just 1.5 per cent.

YR4 has been estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide — about the size of a large office building. Its projected trajectory* could mean impact in eight of the world’s most populated cities — including Bogota, Colombia; Lagos, Nigeria; and Mumbai, India.

Fortunately, if world space agencies determine that the asteroid is likely to hit Earth, they could send a rocket armed with explosives towards the rock as it heads towards us in 2032, changing its course or destroying it entirely.

“Destroying it would be easy,” said the NASA project manager. “It wouldn’t even take that much explosives. The trick is getting to it, and delivering the explosives precisely at the right time, at the right angle.”

Being able to destroy the asteroid would largely depend on its density* and makeup, which scientists don’t yet know. Some asteroids are made of porous rock* and metal, causing them to fall apart easily, like the one that exploded over Chelyabinsk*, Russia, in 2013. Those would take less explosives than other, more solid asteroids.

NASA has not commented on whether it would send a nuclear warhead or some other explosive to counteract* the asteroid. Experts have said that it’s too early to decide since scientists are still monitoring the asteroid – which might not even pose any risk at all.

The NASA source said, “We’ll be able to track it until April, and then it’ll be too far away. But we can learn a lot in the next month or so, and figure out what to do from there.”

The NY Post reported that NASA had been in contact with several other space agencies, including the China National Space Administration (CNSA), the Russian space agency Roscosmos, and the European Space Agency (ESA).

The agencies were also in contact with astronomers from the International Asteroid Warning Network to map out the rock’s path — and ascertain the risk of collision with Earth at 61,200 km/hour.

Hundreds of telescopes remain trained on the asteroid, which is currently moving away from Earth in an elliptical route* that takes it closer to the sun. It takes approximately four years for the rock to orbit the sun.

YR4 was initially spotted rocketing through our solar system in late December 2024.

Astronomers first believed that the asteroid had a one in 83 chance of hitting Earth during its return in 2032.

The rock will next return to Earth’s vicinity* in 2028, giving scientists another chance to recalculate the odds and determine if the rock poses a threat.

Some scientists believe the odds will drop dramatically upon its next orbit.

Dr Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the non-profit* Planetary Society, told AFP the probability of impact would likely drop to zero.

But NASA and the other agencies aren’t taking any chances.

“We have plenty of notice, and this is one to watch,” said the NASA project manager. “It could end up not being a danger at all. It could change in mass if there’s ice on it, and that would change things tremendously.

“It could wobble just a little bit now, and that slight change now could add up to tens of thousands of miles by the time it gets back this way. Anything can happen. But we still have to stay on our guard.”

This article originally appeared in the New York Post and has been reproduced with permission.

WATCH THE VIDEO

POLL

GLOSSARY

• probability: likelihood
• downgraded: reduced to a lower level
• projected trajectory: forecasted or predicted path it could travel
• density: thickness or compactness
• porous rock: rock that has empty space in it
• Chelyabinsk: in 2013 an asteroid that was 20m in diameter started to burn up and then exploded in the atmosphere about 30km above Earth’s surface above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia, causing a powerful shockwave but no direct impact with Earth
• counteract: fight against or deflect
• elliptical route: an oval shaped path caused by the gravitational interactions of the sun and the other celestial bodies
• vicinity: area of
• non-profit: an organisation that doesn’t exist to make lots of money for its owners or members

EXTRA READING
Asteroid watch begins for rare find
Aussie team to assess asteroid risk
What was ‘fireball’ in Aussie skies?

QUICK QUIZ
1. What is the probability that the asteroid will not collide with Earth in 2032?
2. When was the asteroid first spotted?
3. How might space agencies deflect the asteroid if it poses a risk to Earth?
4. How might the probability of impact change in the next four years?
5. How long does it take for the asteroid to orbit the Sun?

LISTEN TO THIS STORY

CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES
1. Will it or won’t it?
In order to reassure ourselves that there is no need for alarm, we should try to understand the likelihood (as stated or inferred in the news story) of different actions and events occurring. Create a table with the headings Impossible; Unlikely; Likely; and Certain. Place the following items into the correct columns in your table:
(a)   The asteroid will impact Earth in 2025

(b)   The asteroid will impact Earth in 2028

(c)   The asteroid will impact Earth in 2032

(d)   There will be no prior warning if the asteroid is going to impact Earth

(e)   The asteroid will ‘wobble’ and change trajectory

(f)   NASA and other space agencies will be monitoring the asteroid closely

(g)   NASA will be able to take action to stop the asteroid impacting Earth if it is determined necessary

Think about the information in your table – are you concerned about 2024 YR4? Why or why not?

Time: allow 25 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: English; Mathematics; Science

2. Extension
Using a different colour, add two more events (that are not related to 2024 YR4) to each column of your table.

Time: allow 10 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: Mathematics

VCOP ACTIVITY
To sum it up
After reading the article, use your comprehension skills to summarise in a maximum of three sentences what the article is about.

Think about:

• What is the main topic or idea?
• What is an important or interesting fact?
• Who was involved (people or places)?

Use your VCOP skills to re-read your summary to make sure it is clear, specific and well punctuated.