Hopes of summer skies on hold as BOM confirms stormy six months
The Bureau of Meteorology’s severe weather season forecast is more lightning flash than newsflash, after wild winter and spring – plus flooding in some states this week – signal what’s in store
READING LEVEL: ORANGE
Australians have been given a weather forecast for the next six months and it’s not the news we were hoping for, as the country moves into its severe weather season.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released its severe weather long-range forecast on Monday that warned of an increased risk of an above-average number of tropical cyclones*.
“This season we have a greater than 70 per cent chance of at least 11 tropical cyclones, which is the long-term average impacting the Australian region,” it said in a statement.
“Communities are urged to prepare now as there is an increased chance that the first tropical cyclone in the Australian region is likely to be earlier in the season.”
The Bureau said the increased likelihood reflected the impact of current climate influences, including La Nina*.
“Despite fewer tropical cyclones in recent years, Australia has never had a season without at least one tropical cyclone crossing the coast since records began in the early 1970s,” it said.
Australia’s tropical cyclone season lasts from November 1 to April 30.
The forecast included an increased risk of flooding for eastern and northern Australia and prolonged* heatwaves in southern areas, together with higher humidity*.
Emergency services have asked flood-prone communities in NSW to brace for conditions later this week as more than 100 active flood warnings remain in place across the state.
Emergency Services Minister Steph Cooke warned residents in affected areas that many rivers were yet to peak as 106 flood warnings were issued.
“My message is, please don’t be deceived*,” Ms Cooke said.
“The sun might be out in various parts of the state, we may be seeing some dry conditions at the present, but our rivers continue to rise and we know that there is another event coming through.
“We may see a reprieve* for a few days but … (we) will be heading into some more difficult conditions towards the end of the week.”
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet urged residents to stay out of floodwaters and to follow the latest safety advice.
“We see time and time again in these situations, people put their lives at risk, their family lives at risk,” he said.
“Please do not do that. Follow those instructions from our emergency services personnel, they are putting their life on the line to help us.
“It’s going to be a difficult summer. We’ve gone through difficult times in the past and our success as a people through all these natural disasters has been following those instructions, so please continue to do so.”
Falls of up to 100mm are also predicted to smash some areas north of the dividing range in Victoria, while there are projections of between 30 and 50mm to hit the Melbourne capital.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said the state’s emergency services stood ready to respond to damaging conditions.
Echoing his NSW counterpart, Mr Andrews urged residents to be prepared and heed all warnings and advice.
“We know that our catchments are full,” Mr Andrews said. “We know that we’ve had record rainfall to this point and the ground is absolutely sodden.
“There will be significant rainfall in certain parts of the state, and that’ll pose a flooding risk to communities in lots of different places.”
A number of Victoria’s dams reached capacity on Tuesday, including the Dartmouth Dam, which spilled over for the first time in 26 years in recent days.
Victorian SES chief operations officer Tim Wiebusch said there was no advice yet for people in high risk zones to evacuate or relocate at this stage.
“But there will be messaging that will start to come out … to indicate when people may need to do that,” he said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters that the federal government was available to provide assistance at the request of state governments.
“My heart goes out to those people who have suffered time and time again,” Mr Albanese said.
GLOSSARY
- tropical cyclones: low pressure systems formed over warm tropical waters in strong winds
- La Nina: climate pattern when surface ocean water cools along the tropical west coast of South America
- prolonged: continued for a long time, occurring over an extended period
- humidity: the amount of water vapour in the air
- deceived: believing something untrue is true
- reprieve: a break, respite, some relief from a difficult situation
- meteorologist: scientist who studies the atmosphere, especially weather and forecasting
- severity: the seriousness of something
- saturated: soaked, wet through, drenched
EXTRA READING
La Nina tipped to drench Australia for third year
Nature and climate change make a destructive mix
Dealing with the world’s worries
QUICK QUIZ
- What percentage chance is there of at least 11 tropical cyclones this severe weather season?
- What is one current climate influence increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclones?
- When does Australia’s tropical cyclone season begin and end?
- How many flood warnings remain in place across NSW?
- What did NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet urge residents to do?
LISTEN TO THIS STORY
CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES
1. Severe weather
Spring is here but the rain keeps coming! Many Australian residents have been affected by this unusually high amount of rainfall and general bad weather.
Write a short limerick about the wet weather and your feelings about it.
Limericks, like all poetic forms, have a set of rules that you need to follow. The rules for a limerick are fairly simple:
They are five lines long.
Lines 1, 2, and 5 rhyme with one another.
Lines 3 and 4 rhyme with each other.
They have a distinctive rhythm
They are usually funny.
Source: poetry4kids.com/lessons/how-to-write-a-limerick/
Time: allow 30 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: English; Personal and Social; Critical and Creative Thinking
2. Extension
For NSW and QLD residents who have already dealt with constant floods and tropical cyclones in the past, how do you think these flood warnings make them feel?
It’s one thing to physically prepare for these weather events, but how could they look after themselves emotionally?
Time: allow 15 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: English; Personal and Social; Critical and Creative Thinking
VCOP ACTIVITY
Read this!
A headline on an article – or a title on your text – should capture the attention of the audience, telling them to read this now. So choosing the perfect words for a headline or title is very important.
Create three new headlines for the events that took place in this article. Remember, what you write and how you write it will set the pace for the whole text, so make sure it matches.
Read out your headlines to a partner and discuss what the article will be about based on the headline you created. Discuss the tone and mood you set in just your few, short words. Does it do the article justice? Will it capture the audience’s attention the way you hoped? Would you want to read more?
Consider how a headline or title is similar to using short, sharp sentences throughout your text. They can be just as important as complex ones. Go through the last text you wrote and highlight any short, sharp sentences that capture the audience.