Australia set for warmer winter and temps 5C above city averages
Something unusual is unfolding across Australia’s weather maps looking ahead to winter hols, with conditions behaving differently to what we would expect in June – what is happening and why?
READING LEVEL: GREEN
Australians are set to see another week of unusually warm winter weather, with temperatures in several capital cities climbing as much as 5C above average for this time of year.
Sydney is forecast to remain in the low 20s throughout the week, while Melbourne is expected to reach the high teens, including a top of 21C on Wednesday.
Brisbane and Adelaide are also tipped to stay above 20C, with Perth and Hobart forecast to reach the mid to high teens.
The mild conditions follow a weekend cold front that swept through parts of southeastern Australia, bringing rain to South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and inland areas of NSW.
Bureau* of Meteorology* meteorologist* Ilana Cherny said warm northerly winds ahead of the system had contributed to the above-average temperatures.
“(Monday) we’ll be following the swift passage of this cold front moving through the southeastern states, ahead of which we will see these rather warm and gusty northerly winds,” Ms Cherny said.
While the front delivered rain and cooler air to parts of the southeast, much of the country remained mild for June.
Ms Cherny said inland Queensland would experience “another dry, sunny and warm day”, while Sydney was forecast to reach 22C under mostly sunny skies.
The warmer conditions are expected to continue beyond this week, with the Bureau forecasting a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures through winter and into spring.
“Daytime temperatures for July to September are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except in parts of northern Australia,” the Bureau said.
“Night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.”
The outlook comes as climate drivers in the Pacific Ocean continue to shift towards El Nino* conditions.
The Bureau said the tropical Pacific was edging closer to El Nino thresholds, with warmer ocean temperatures already beginning to influence the atmosphere.
“Sea surface temperatures for July to September are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around most of Australia,” the Bureau said.
Weather forecasters have also warned that a developing El Nino could contribute to a warmer and drier second half of 2026, particularly across southern and eastern Australia.
El Nino events are often associated with higher pressure systems* dominating Australia’s weather patterns, reducing cloud cover and allowing daytime temperatures to climb.
They can also lead to below-average rainfall, increased drought risk and fewer strong cold fronts reaching southern parts of the country.
While forecasters caution that every El Nino behaves differently, long-range models suggest the climate pattern is likely to strengthen through winter and persist into spring.
For now, Australians can expect a relatively mild week, with temperatures in many parts of the country feeling more like autumn than the middle of winter.
POLL
- GLOSSARY
- bureau: an office, organisation, or government department that collects and distributes information about something specific
- meteorology: scientific study of the processes that cause particular weather condition
- meteorologist: scientist who specialises in the study of Earth’s atmosphere and weather-forming processes, including weather forecasting
- El Nino: a warming of the eastern tropical Pacific occurring every few years, which alters the weather pattern of the tropic
- pressure systems: air masses are set in motion by uneven heating of the Earth’s surface, which causes atmospheric circulation that creates variations in density and pressure
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QUICK QUIZ
- Temperatures are expected to rise by how many degrees in multiple capitals?
- What had contributed to the above-average temperatures according to BOM meteorologist Ilana Cherny?
- Climate drivers in the Pacific Ocean continue to shift toward what?
- What are warmer ocean temperatures already doing?
- What might El Nino contribute to in the second half of 2026?
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CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES
1. Domino effect
Think about the upcoming term break, when many families and tourists head to the ski fields for their winter holiday. How are these warmer temperatures going to affect all the people who normally head to the snow, and the people working and relying on an income from the ski season?
Below is a list of events caused by these warmer temperatures. Number them in order of 1-9 from first to last. Add at least three of your own impacts to the list:
- Towns get fewer visitors
- Less snowfall
- Businesses earn less
- Less money spent in towns
- Warmer temperatures
- Workers get fewer shifts
Time: allow 15 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: English, Humanities, Personal and Social, Critical and Creative Thinking
2. Extension
Estimate the following. The average family ski trip is $2000 and 100 families cancel their holiday in winter.
Who are the stakeholders that you think will lose the most money?
- Ski resorts
- Accommodation providers
- Restaurants
- Ski gear and equipment hire businesses
Time: allow 10 minutes to complete this activity
Curriculum Links: Mathematics, Personal and Social, Critical and Creative Thinking
VCOP ACTIVITY
To sum it up
After reading the article, use your comprehension skills to summarise in a maximum of three sentences what the article is about.
Think about:
What is the main topic or idea?
What is an important or interesting fact?
Who was involved (people or places)?
Use your VCOP skills to re-read your summary to make sure it is clear, specific and well punctuated.